Global Economics

Oselux School of Global Economics and Capital Management

In Oselux Global Economics and Capital Management, simply referred to as the School of Global Economics, we conduct deep BSc-, MSc- and PhD-level theoretical and applied economics research, to provide the most robust evidence base for effective decision making under conditions of uncertainty and complexity.

The SSMCD remit

This is hinged on broad and deep characterisations of key sectors of an economy to elicit fundamental and contingent predictors of value in the sectors, and for the wider economy.

An example is Systematic Stock Market Characterisation and Development (SSMCD), which links key empirical market features (efficiency, anomalies, bubbles, volatilities, predictability and valuations) to macroeconomic factors like interest rates, inflation, consumption, investments, growth, and unemployment.

Mapping the DNA of overall financial markets and key sectors this way (energy, banking and finance, health, telecommunications, retail, and industrials, for example), combines with related applied statistics, financial mathematics, investing, applied economics, computational modelling, and business analytics knowledge, to produce a multiple-lensed view of economic and investing phenomena.

Key perspectives of work in the School are:

  • Innovating leading university curricula in Economics, for  instance Nottingham, Oxbridge, Warwick, Harvard, Princeton, MIT, and LSE;
  • BSc, MSc and PhD training in Financial Mathematics, including derivatives research, portfolio theory, and investment applications in global financial markets;
  • BS, MSc and PhD training in Applied Statistics, Actuarial Science, and Global Economics courses;
  • Researching and investing in different asset classes – equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, real estate, and derivatives;
  • Implementing paper trading experiments in portfolio construction and management; see Timothy Ferriss (2011)’s The 4-Hour Week, p. 190);
  • Special programmes for Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and the ilk) investment research, market characterisation, and investing strategies;
  • Links with business and finance;
  • Advanced time series and econometric analyses;
  • Bank financial management (retail banking, investment and wealth management, for example);
  • Applied economics, including economics of strategy, financial economics, monetary policy;
  • Experimental and behavioural economics linked to the social-psychology of investments;
  • International private equity and valuations;
  • Entrepreneurial finance;
  • Understanding and doing business with global central banking e.g. US Federal Reserve, UK Bank of England, Central Bank of Nigeria;
  • Street-Wise Economics: Case Studies built from emerging and typically multidisciplinary hot topics;
  • Other emerging perspectives from daily general cultural literacy work in Worldhero 3E, which generate valuable wisdom of the crowds, surveys of experts, and financial journalism;
  • Applied Economics Newsletter, practical financial journalism which digests and creatively extends critical reads, blogs and informed conceptual articles from journals and financial broadsheets such as The TimesThe Economist, using Worldhero 3E research and businesses as case illustrations;Regular international symposia, schools and workshops in global economics, mathematical and statistical finance, in collaboration with experts from academia, industry and government, linked to national socio-economic development goals and challenges;
  • Finance, Economics and Society: Knowledge, People, Methods and Technologies.

Further developments and research directions in financial engineering

cf. Ezepue & Solarin 2012 Metaheuristics of the 2007 global financial crisis: implications for modelling emerging financial markets. Afrihero Research Reports.

We implement the following programme of research in financial engineering, (investments, quantitative finance and financial risk management) within the then Business Intelligence & Quantitative Modelling Research GroupCommunications and Computing Research Centre, Sheffield Hallam University, UK, the Financial Mathematics Programme of the National Mathematical Centre, Abuja, Nigeria, and now this School of Global Economics:

1, Integrated Risk Analysis, Business Intelligence and Communication (IRABIC):

This research strand which will mimic combined perspectives from Putnam’s, Gigerenzer’s and Kahneman’s works at the interface of risk appreciation, heuristics, business intelligence and data mining, psychology of communication, behavioural economics, decision theory, game theory, integrated risk management solutions etc. The strand will also generate text-monographs/journal papers that disseminate research results and associated best practices on IRABIC.

2, Stochastic Analysis and Mathematical Finance Theory and Applications (SAMFTA):

This strand will explore such topics as: statistics and probability theory; infinite dimensional models; shot-noise effects, incomplete information issues; application of SDEs in Hilbert spaces, including Lévy random fields, to credit risk, CDOs, equity and energy markets; nonlinear filtering theory for pricing corporate securities under noisy asset information; stochastic calculus including stochastic differential equations; stochastic analysis, mathematical analysis, functional analysis, ordinary and partial differential equations; mathematical physics; approximation theory; measure and integration theory; applied mathematics; quantitative finance; stochastic programming & stochastic optimization models; quantitative risk management; mathematical foundations of investment and risk management, etc. This strand will also generate text-monographs/journal papers that disseminate research results and associated best practices on SAMFTA.

3, Stochastic Modelling in FIEBB(STOMFIEBB):

which will implement fundamental and applied research on the interface among: stochastic processes, including branching processes; applied stochastic modelling; finance and investing; insurance and actuarial science; financial economics, including high-frequency finance; corporate finance; financial accounting; business analysis, forecasting and performance management; complexity and chaos theory, including fractals; bank financial management; business and marketing, including conjoint analysis, structural equation modelling, customer analytics etc. This strand will also generate text-monographs/journal papers that disseminate research results and associated best practices on STOMFIEBB.

4, Statistical Aspects of Data Mining (STADAM):

which will implement theoretical and applied research in all techniques of data mining e.g. neural networks, regression analysis, multivariate analysis, modern time series analysis and forecasting, decision trees, logistic regression, cluster analysis, rule associations etc. This strand will also generate text-monographs/journal papers that disseminate research results and associated best practices on STADAM.

5, The Pedagogy of Mathematical Modelling in FIEBB (PEMMAFIEBB):

This strand will research and innovate the curricula underpinning all the research strands listed in these notes. It will conduct action-based classroom and fundamental research on how to embed creative problem solving (CPS), critical thinking, problem-based learning, use of case studies, consulting and client-facing skills and entrepreneurship skills in learning, teaching and assessment (LTA) the teaching of quantitative courses in FIEBB. This strand will also generate super textbooks, monographs/journal papers that disseminate research results and associated best practices on PEMMAFIEBB.

6, Research directions/workshops in Credit & Interest Rate Analytics:

This will include:

  • Design of more sophisticated credit and interest rate products suitable for special client risk management and investment challenges
  • Understanding credit derivatives and structured products
  • Mathematical models and case studies for/of pricing financial derivatives
  • Strong real-life exemplification of securitization markets, credit instruments, credit default options (CDOs) (including their rationale, origination and structuring), market approaches and models, rating agency approaches.

7, Research directions/workshops in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and Copula methods in quantitative finance:

This will include

  • Deep understanding of heavy-tailed risks and complex financial interdependencies – as rationales for going beyond standard statistical models and simplifying assumptions of normality, in order to develop more sophisticated methodologies

  • Overview of the role of EVT in modelling and measuring extreme risks
  • Overview of the role of Copula functions in modelling co-movements between markets, risk factors and other variables studied in finance
  • Detailed look at core topics in this body of techniques: theory of maxima; Fisher-Tippett Theorem; Maximum Domains of Attraction; Block Maxima Method for EVT; and Coping with Copulas; Types of Copulas; Fitting Copulas to Data; Application to Credit Risk (for Copula methods).

These topics are core to most of the research topics explored in this school and are embodied in project proposals that seek funding from all stakeholders, in order to implement the research agenda in Nigeria (for a start) and Sub-Saharan African financial markets (see Project Bank FINE in Part I and Project FINE in Part III of Ezepue & Solarin 2012).

Related research and enterprise development perspectives:

  • Oselux Financial Education: including Oselux MMCME Centre, a Centre for Millennials Money and Contemporary Mathematics Education; will teach basic money management to primary and secondary school pupil in Nigeria and Africa, including parents, working with schools; to train more than 1 million primary school students and 1 million secondary school students from the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria; to use am army of Oselux-inspired mathematics, statistics, finance and economics graduates, youth corpers with match-up funding from local, state and federal governments; to develop OseluxFinApp to teach under-18s’ about digital money (savings, current accounts, interest rates, investments, compound interests, shares, etc.); to be particularly championed by Oselux Enterprise Bank also in extending the training to SMEs, marker women and petty traders, etc.;
  • Worldhero 3E Centre for Advanced Research and Enterprise Development (CEfARED), linked to related disciplinary research in mathematics, statistics, computing, information modelling, applied economics, and financial mathematics;
  • Organising national cross-sector multidisciplinary support networks like Nigerian Mathematics, Finance, Economics and Statistics Research Consortium (NIMFSERC);

  • Linking these consortia to a global Centre for Mathematical Modelling in Finance, Insurance, Economics, Banking and Business (CEMMFIEBB), which the School of Global Economics coordinates;
  • Founding Mathematical Sciences Research Groups (MSRGs) in affiliate universities, to cross-fertilise research in mathematics, statistics, computing, finance, and economics;
  • World-leading undergraduate and postgraduate tuition in the contributing subjects;
  • PhD Research on the topic: The Pedagogy of Selected Global Economics Disciplines: Entrepreneurship, Enterprise Development, and Employability Perspectives, with specific focus on, say,
  • Financial Mathematics, Investing, Fund Management, Econometrics, Applied Economics, Experimental and Behavioural Economics, International Private Equity and Valuations, Bank Financial Management, Wealth Management, Mergers & Acquisitions, Entrepreneurial Finance, and Financial Journalism

Related Spin-offs:

  • Oselux Capital: Venture capital, international private equity, and investment management – actively implements the research ideas in the School
  • Oselux Global Economics Monitor
  • 3E Business Restructuring Group
  • SANSED: Society for the Advancement of National Socio-Economic Development, with members trained to peacefully advocate for positive economic change in their countries through
  • ESDEMs: Economic and Social Development Movements, for example
  • NESDEM: Nigerian Economic and Social Development Movement

Again, work in this school produces outstanding corporate academic PhD theses, MSc dissertations, and advanced project outcomes, which can be spun-off as social enterprises, and for-profit born-global firms that are powered by the Internet.